John F. Kennedy Jr. drops out, VP Kamala Harris gains potential votes
John F. Kennedy Jr. drops out, VP Kamala Harris gains potential votes
Latino voters and first-timers are making Trump even more upset about 2024 presidential run
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A little over a week ago when Robert F. Kennedy Jr., suspended his 2024 presidential campaign, he endorsed Donald Trump. Although he’s caught up in legal proceedings to have his name removed from the Michigan November ballot, he has continuously confirmed he is no longer running and wants Trump to win.
His supporters, however, have a different idea. According to Pew Research, a majority (61%) of Kennedy supporters (in July) supported a different candidate by August. And now 39% support VP Kamala Harris over Trump (20%).
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While the polls are always a mixed bag and 2016 alone proved why they should be treated skeptically, the “strong” supporters do raise alarms. Last month, 18% of Kennedy’s supporters said they backed him strongly. Meanwhile, Trump supporters (64%) and Harris supporters (62%) were far more confident in standing by their presidential pick.
Among (former) Kennedy supporters, Harris gained some of the crowd between ages 50-64 (26%) and 65+ (27%). Although both Trump and Harris tied at 29% with voters ages 30-49, Trump had a lead with her on older Kennedy voters — 30% of voters ages 50-64 and 32% of voters ages 65+.
Majority of Kennedy supporters overall — even though they claim to be Independents — lean heavier on the Republican end (40% lean Republican, 14% are Republican), with only 26% leaning Democrat and 12% of Democrats. (Still, 61% don’t like either presidential candidate.)
While it’s easy enough to dismiss Kennedy’s supporters altogether, especially considering 30% of Kennedy-turned-Harris supporters and 27% of Kennedy-turned-Trump supporters are less likely to be highly motivated to vote, everybody’s first vote comes around at some point. And that still leaves 70% (on Harris’ end) and 72% (on Trump’s end) who are extremely motivated to vote in the next presidential election.
Why first-timers can make all the difference
While a considerable amount of attention is being paid to Independent voters and older voters, in 2020, 68% of first-timers cast a ballot for Biden; Trump’s first-timer total was 29%.
According to NBC, first-timers were also essential Hillary Clinton supporters (although we know what happened with the electoral college versus popular vote). In Clinton’s case, in 2016, 57% of first-timers voted for Clinton versus 38% for Trump.
Facing South reports that one in 10 of 2020's first-time voters were between the ages of 18-24. Their voter uptick was in response to issues such as the COVID-19 pandemic, racial inequality and climate change.
Why Hispanic children of immigrants make the GOP nervous
Of the more than 8.6 million Latinos nationwide who voted early in 2020, about 2.4 million were first-time and newly registered voters. The increase in Georgia's Latino immigrant population brought a new generation of children of immigrants who are now eligible voters — and this is a crowd who is reportedly paying careful attention to anti-immigrant and border control laws.
And with recent news of Texas and 15 other states suing to end the “parole in place” program, which would have given nearly half a million immigrants married to U.S. Citizens a path to citizenship, Latino voters (among others) are watching how this plays out. (Of note, “parole in place” for married couples is not to be confused with the “parole in place” program for active-duty members of the U.S. armed forces. The latter program allows one-year-increment periods of citizenship for service members, in addition to their spouses, widow[er]s, parents, sons or daughters.)
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With Kennedy dropping out of the race but polling well among Latino voters at one point, this may be a mixed bag considering the demographic tends to look elsewhere for presidential choices. In a survey from Voto Latino, an election advocacy group, one-fifth of 2,000 Latino voters in five critical states (Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Texas and Pennsylvania) were leaning toward a third-party presidential candidate. NY Times confirms that Biden won likely Latino voters overall, but he underperformed compared with 2020 when that third candidate option was on the ballot.
While voters are still getting to know the new Democratic presidential candidate outside of her VP role, she has some new support. Comedian and actor George Lopez moderated the Latino Men for Kamala campaign on July 31. As of this month, she has jumped 14 points with Latino voters.
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